The most-traded SHFE tin contract showed a volatile consolidation pattern. The market is concerned that Trump may impose additional restrictions. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

April 16, 2025 Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract In the morning session, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) showed a volatile consolidation pattern, dipping slightly to around 256,000 yuan/mt before the close, and settled at 256,340 yuan/mt at midday, with an intraday decline of 1.22%. The intraday fluctuation range was from 255,500 to 259,490 yuan/mt. Open interest decreased by 623 lots to 30,000 lots, indicating cautious market trading. LME tin prices also fluctuated, reported at $31,205/mt during the Asian session. Semiconductor Tariff Exemption Extension Supports Demand: The US Trade Representative (USTR) announced an extension of the tariff exemption on Chinese semiconductor products until the end of 2025, alleviating pessimistic expectations for tin solder demand. However, the continuity of the policy remains uncertain, with market concerns that Trump may impose additional restrictions. Recent hawkish remarks from US Fed officials, emphasizing that "interest rate cuts will take longer," pushed the US dollar index to a high of 104.3, suppressing the valuation of non-ferrous metals. Maintain a range-bound trading strategy in the short term, with breakthroughs dependent on geopolitical risks or unexpectedly loose macro policies.